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Given that most of the "Magnificent Seven" has surpassed consensus expectations, Goldman Sachs said the group of big technology companies could once again exceed the broader market's gains this year. So far, six of the Magnificent Seven — all but blockbuster chipmaker Nvidia — have reported fourth-quarter results. Each of the companies, with the exception of electric vehicle maker Tesla , exceeded consensus sales forecasts, and collectively posted 14% year-over-year quarterly sales growth, Kostin noted. Analysts also expect the Magnificent Seven to outperform in margin expansion over the next three years, compared with the rest of the market, he added. Shares of the Magnificent Seven raced ahead of the broader market last year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Nvidia —, Goldman, Nvidia's Organizations: Nvidia, DoJ, FTC, Analysts, Tech, Apple, Microsoft
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal investors are all in on the United States, says Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Kostin's hearing from global investors, whether the recent action in the Russell 2000 has changed the strategist's stance, and more.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Russell Organizations: Email Global Locations: United States
Goldman Sachs says now is a great time to invest in consumer staples stocks. The sector is cheaper than it has been 90% of the time relative to the S&P 500. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRight now looks like a great time to invest in the consumer staples sector of the stock market, according to Goldman Sachs. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Invest
The firm rebalanced its return on equity growth basket of stocks, which is sector-neutral to the S & P 500. It contains 50 names with the highest consensus expected ROE growth over the next 12 months. Stocks with greatest expected ROE growth include gold mining company Newmont , wireless infrastructure real estate investment trust American Tower , chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices and toy manufacturer Hasbro , according to Goldman. The communications-focused REIT has the second-highest expected ROE growth — 48% — of the names on Goldman's list. In addition to these names, Netflix and T-Mobile are also among the names in Goldman's ROE growth basket.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, ROE, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, Newmont, REIT, Goldman's ROE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Devices, Hasbro, AMD, Nvidia, UBS, Netflix, Citigroup Locations: Newmont, Goldman's
In fact, the S & P 500 is currently at about the same valuation Goldman Sachs expected it to end 2024. Weak pricing power Another trade is owning businesses with weak pricing power. "During periods of improving profitability, investors often reduce the scarcity premium assigned to strong pricing power stocks, and firms with less pricing power and more variable profit margins typically outperform." Some companies with weak pricing power include Freshpet , according to a Goldman Sachs stock screen. Own consumer staples Meanwhile, consumer staples are at an attractive valuation compared to utilities.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Russell, what's, TD Cowen, Roblox, D.R, Consumer Staples, Tyson Organizations: CNBC, Survey, WisdomTree, Hertz Global Holdings, Consumer, Utilities, Tyson Foods, Pilgrim's Locations: Horton , Texas
Goldman Sachs is already raising its 2024 stock market forecast, and the new year isn't even here yet. The S & P 500 rallied 5% in the past month to already meet Kostin's original 2024 forecast of 4,700 for the new year that he gave back in November . "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," wrote Kostin in a note Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which scared equity investors by rising above 5% back in October, has tumbled to 3.9%. According to Goldman, the typical member of this basket will return four times as much as the median S & P 500 member but with the same level of volatility.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Treasury
(PRO subscribers can view the official 2024 strategist survey here . ) "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," Kostin wrote. Other Wall Street firms with similarly bullish forecasts include Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets, which each have S & P 500 price targets of 5,100. Barclays' Venu Krishna was even more bearish, anticipating the S & P 500 would fall to 3,725. Entering the penultimate trading week of the year, the S & P 500 is almost 23% higher in 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced almost 42%.
Persons: , Stocks, Sam Stovall, Monday, Stovall, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, America's Savita Subramanian, JPMorgan's, Bujas, Morgan Stanley, BofA's Subramanian —, Venu Krishna, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Dow Industrials Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Goldman, Oppenheimer Asset Management, Citigroup, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Nvidia, Microsoft, Barclays, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's
UBS is out with its 2024 outlook, and it expects some wild swings for markets next year. The Wall Street firm on Monday said it sees the S & P 500 ending next year at 4,850, roughly 5% above Monday's close of 4,622.44. Stocks have been on a tear recently, with the S & P 500 riding a six-week winning streak. "The large spread between current strength and expected weakness presents a dilemma for investors," Golub wrote Monday. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said he anticipates the S & P 500 will end next year at 4,700 , just a stone's throw from where the broader index is currently trading.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, Stocks, Golub, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, America's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market has 'modest upside' in 2024, says Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Kostin's way of thinking about equity markets, if there will be revenue growth in a falling inflation environment, and much more.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Email
Hedge funds and mutual funds have both increased their equity exposure, says David Kostin. This sent the S&P 500 to its highest peak of the year, now up 19.50% since January. These 10 stocks are the top picks among both hedge funds and mutual funds. Hedge funds and mutual funds have increased their position sizes in the equity markets this year. Hedge funds particularly have had a great stock-picking run; long positions from Goldman Sachs' Hedge Fund Very Important Position basket (GSTHHVIP), which includes the 50 most popular stocks within the top 10 holdings of fundamental hedge funds, has seen a 34% gain year-to-date, according to a December 1 note from Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin and his team.
Persons: David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Business Locations: Goldman Sachs
Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could climb more than 11% to a record next year — and said its base case seems "conservative." The investment bank set its 2024 year-end S & P 500 target at 5,100, or more than 11% above where the broader index closed Friday at 4,559.34. In its bull case, Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could even climb to 5,500, or more than 20% above where the benchmark closed last. "We note that the S & P 500 has been in a clear trend up channel since the [Great Financial Crisis]. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin expects the S & P 500 will chop around and finally end next year at 4,700 .
Persons: , Jim Reid, Reid, America's Savita Subramanian, Lori Calvasina, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Bank, America's Locations: London, financials
With their well-entrenched businesses, high sales growth, and strong balance sheets he believes they will continue to outperform next year. Thankfully, Kostin wrote that "equity valuations appear less stretched in absolute and relative terms after adjusting for record high market concentration." "In a recession, we expect the S&P 500 would end 2024 at 3700 (-18%)," Kostin wrote. First, Kostin wrote investors should "own growth stocks with high returns on capital that typically outperform given stable economic growth and interest rates." To that end, Kostin shared Goldman Sachs' basket of 50 stocks the analysts there believe are the highest quality on the market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin isn't, Kostin, Altman Organizations: Business
The S&P 500 will climb higher in the first quarter but then plunge 12%, the French bank said. AdvertisementGet ready for an up-and-down 2024 where the S&P 500 nears record highs, plunges, and then stages another comeback, Société Générale says. "The S&P 500 should be in 'buy-the-dip' territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve." The S&P 500 traded at 4,556 as of Wednesday's closing bell. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said earlier this month that he's expecting the S&P 500 to trade at 4,700 points by the end of 2024.
Persons: Société, , Société Générale, SocGen, Manish Kabra, It's, Kabra, who's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Wall, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets
Investors should stick with quality stocks against a lackluster macroeconomic growth outlook, according to Goldman Sachs. "Despite our economists' optimistic US economic growth outlook, it seems likely that investor economic uncertainty will generally remain elevated next year," Kostin said. Here's a look at some of the quality stocks that made the Goldman list. SHW YTD mountain Sherwin-Williams stock. Kostin noted that growth stocks "typically outperform given stable economic growth and interest rates," while cyclicals "represent attractive tactical investments if economic data surprise to the upside relative to consensus expectations."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, Kostin, Sam Altman, Altman, Sherwin, Williams, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Microsoft, BMO Capital Locations: U.S
These are some of the forecasts for 2024 from Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin and his team. But that doesn't mean it's time to expect a full-on bull market or rapid economic growth anytime soon. So, to leave room for alternative outcomes, Kostin envisioned an even more optimistic scenario that would see rate cuts and stronger economic growth. The second strategy is to not shy away from growth stocks, but rather, be discerning. Yet, their forecasted sales growth is below their 2023 numbers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman isn't, Sherwin, Williams, Stocks, Eli Lilly, Russell, John Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Bloomberg, Business, O'Reilly Automotive, Dwight, Marathon Petroleum, Intercontinental Exchange, Truist Financial, Rollins Inc, Power Systems, Water, Enphase Energy, Co, NVIDIA, EQT Corp, Toro Company, John Bean Technologies Corporation, Delta Air Lines, DAL, Alaska Air Group Locations: Goldman's, ORLY, Albemarle, ALB
Goldman sees S&P 500 rising to 4700 by year-end 2024
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
David Kostin, Chief US Equity Strategist for Goldman Sachs, speaks during an interview with CNBC on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 10, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 15 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs investment strategists said on Wednesday that they now expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at 4700, implying a roughly 6% gain including dividends. The estimate, from a research note led by chief equity strategist David Kostin, is based on modest economic expansion, an increase in earnings of 5% and a valuation multiple of 18. The target assumes a roughly flat market during the first half of the year with returns concentrated in the second half, after the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and the U.S. election overhang ends. Reporting By Sinéad CarewOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Brendan McDermid, Sinéad Carew Organizations: US Equity, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Goldman Sachs just came out with its official 2024 outlook — and has a message penned by Taylor Swift for investors. The strategist penned his 2024 outlook after Swift's "All You Had To Do Was Stay" — a song from the singer-songwriter's "1989" album. As homage to the global icon, our 2024 US Equity Outlook is subtitled 'All You Had To Do Was Stay' – invested," Kostin wrote. The strategist expects rate cuts in the fourth quarter of next year. He recommended three strategies for equity investors: buy quality stocks, own growth names with a high return on invested capital (ROIC), and invest in beaten-down cyclicals.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Taylor Swift, David Kostin, Kostin, Taylor Swift's Organizations: Kostin, Federal Reserve, 2Q Locations: U.S
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is now only 12 months away, with the primary season set to begin Jan. 15. While every election year brings with it a unique mix of political and macroeconomic conditions, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team says equity returns tend to be weaker than average in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election. Since 1984, the average S & P 500 return on election years is only 4%, according to Goldman. When looking more broadly from 1932, the S & P 500 has averaged returns of 7% during an election year and 9% outside of election years. "Post-election returns have typically been stronger when the election resulted in a divided government than a unified government, especially in the case of a wave election," Kostin said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Louis, David Kostin, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Louis Federal, Tech
The recent sharp drawdown in stocks presents a buying opportunity for those stocks that are positioned to withstand a double whammy of higher interest rates and an economic slowdown, according to Goldman Sachs. "Although we expect headwinds to discount rates and balance sheets to persist, we would view a substantial further downgrade to the growth outlook as a buying opportunity," David Kostin, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients. Therefore, Goldman believes many cyclical stocks, or those with a high sensitivity to the economy, shouldn't suffer. "We therefore remain wary of long-duration and highly levered stocks but think investors should treat cyclical sell-offs as a buying opportunity," Kostin said. Energy stocks Devon Energy and Patterson-UTI Energy also made the list.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Kostin Organizations: Academy Sports, PVH Corp, Holdings . Energy, Devon Energy, Patterson, UTI Energy
He forecasts stable dividend growth of 5% this year and 4% in 2024. Chevron has a dividend yield of 3.6% in 2023, with a dividend compound annual growth rate of 5% to 2025. Its dividend compound annual growth rate of 8% to 2025 means the company's payout to its investors will continue to grow. The firm also has the highest dividend compound annual growth rate of 29% on the list. Investors can expect their cash returns to grow further through 2025, with a dividend compound annual growth rate of 14%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, Hess, Blackstone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Devon Energy, Chevron, Wall Street, CNBC, Blackstone, Capri Holdings Locations: capex, Guyana, Delaware, Devon, Israel
According to David Kostin and his team, companies are continuing to spend cash even as EPS is down. Companies with strong balance sheets will continue to reward shareholders. Stocks are getting rattled by what's going on in the bond market. This dynamic means that companies with expensive debt to repay are less attractive to investors, according to an October 20 note from Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, investor interest will tilt towards firms with strong balance sheets that can return cash to shareholders, said the note authored by David Kostin.
Persons: David Kostin, what's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Stocks, Treasury
Investors should focus on stocks with strong balance sheets as these companies tend to be more resilient against high interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs. Bond yields have been surging lately as the Federal Reserve signaled higher rates for longer in its inflation fight. Higher rates make it more expensive to borrow, and they effectively lower the present value of any future earnings. Stocks with strong balance sheets have outperformed those with weak ones by 4 percentage points since the start of September, Goldman said. Meanwhile, investors are rotating away from stocks perceived to be vulnerable to the higher rate backdrop, including those with levered balance sheets, Goldman said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Kostin, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Companies, Big Tech, Netflix, Nvidia, Colgate, Palmolive, Costco, American Airlines, Caesars Entertainment, Delta Air Lines
Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin does not expect the Israel-Hamas conflict will have a huge impact on markets. "It's a tragedy from a human point of view," Kostin told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday. "But the idea fundamentally, we'll be getting earnings for the last three months, which is obviously backward looking. And the prospects looking forward are probably more domestically facing issues that are sort of pertinent to a lot of portfolio managers." Still, the strategist expects other risk factors will continue to weigh on stocks, citing higher yields and oil prices that could impede multiple expansion.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, CNBC's, we'll, Sarah Min Locations: Israel
But a new earnings season could bring a new spark to markets. 40 stocks with earnings growth aheadWhile any improvement to bottom lines across the market is a good thing, investors don't have to settle for market-matching EPS growth. In a separate note published earlier this month, Kostin revealed the 40 stocks that Goldman Sachs believes will enjoy stronger earnings growth than the rest of the market next year. All 40 are below, ranked in descending order of 2024 estimated EPS growth. Along with each stock is its ticker, 2023 estimated EPS growth, and 2024 estimated EPS growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, that's, Organizations: 3Q, 4Q Locations: Wall
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings will be the first time in a year we see positive EPS growth, says Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the upcoming earnings results, what could pose a risk to the aggregate index, and more.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
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